Lebanon One More Time

I have not heard the speech of Bashar Assad a couple of days a go, therefore I cannot comment much on it. I did however hear the responses by Hariri, Jumblat, Hizbullah, American and European politicians. It shocks me as a follower of the events how naïve the March 14th group are. If Hizbullah was a patriotic resistance, as most Lebanese politicians have expressed during the latest conflict, we would therefore assume that Hizbullah will not accept disarmaments if there were no guarantees that the army will perform as good as they did if Israel attempts to attack Lebanon again for any reason. The empowerment of the Lebanese army has been a subject that the minister of defense in Lebanon has stressed with expressions of frustration in a recent interview on the LBC TV. Such guarantees cannot be given by any foreign superpowers or Israel; these guarantees have to be based on an internal evaluation of the Lebanese army. Lebanese elected officials, government, and military experts should agree upon its current and desired capabilities and the steps to be taken in between. Such empowerment of the army would only be effective in Hizbullah’s view, if and only if the Lebanese government aligns its role in the region with Hizbullah’s view of Lebanon’s position in the conflict with Israel, that is the expulsion of Israel from all occupied Arab territory and the return of prisoners. The only guarantee for Hizbullah would then be to have more influence either in the army and the ministry of defense or in the parliament. Such changes are still far away in Lebanon, as they would require dramatic change in the election law and the composition of the government. In the meantime, Hariri and Jumblat went out lashing against Damascus’s latest declarations, giving Hizbullah the opportunity to say with full calm, that they also disagree with Damascus. One more nominal victory for Hizbullah in Lebanon!